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#1 savagerabbit

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 02:00 PM

Society will be very very interesting if this comes to pass! We'll be Gods among men! LOL

http://www.telegraph...evastation.html

The Telegraph

Nasa warns solar flares from 'huge space storm' will cause devastation
Exclusive: Britain could face widespread power blackouts and be left without critical communication signals for long periods of time, after the earth is hit by a once-in-a-generation “space storm”, Nasa has warned.

By Andrew Hough
1:00PM BST 14 Jun 2010

National power grids could overheat and air travel severely disrupted while electronic items, navigation devices and major satellites could stop working after the Sun reaches its maximum power in a few years.

Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

In a new warning, Nasa said the super storm would hit like “a bolt of lightning” and could cause catastrophic consequences for the world’s health, emergency services and national security unless precautions are taken.

Scientists believe it could damage everything from emergency services’ systems, hospital equipment, banking systems and air traffic control devices, through to “everyday” items such as home computers, iPods and Sat Navs.

Due to humans’ heavy reliance on electronic devices, which are sensitive to magnetic energy, the storm could leave a multi-billion pound damage bill and “potentially devastating” problems for governments.

“We know it is coming but we don’t know how bad it is going to be,” Dr Richard Fisher, the director of Nasa's Heliophysics division, said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph.

“It will disrupt communication devices such as satellites and car navigations, air travel, the banking system, our computers, everything that is electronic. It will cause major problems for the world.

“Large areas will be without electricity power and to repair that damage will be hard as that takes time.”

Dr Fisher added: “Systems will just not work. The flares change the magnetic field on the earth that is rapid and like a lightning bolt. That is the solar affect.”

A “space weather” conference in Washington DC last week, attended by Nasa scientists, policy-makers, researchers and government officials, was told of similar warnings.

While scientists have previously told of the dangers of the storm, Dr Fisher’s comments are the most comprehensive warnings from Nasa to date.

Dr Fisher, 69, said the storm, which will cause the Sun to reach temperatures of more than 10,000 F (5500C), occurred only a few times over a person’s life.

Every 22 years the Sun’s magnetic energy cycle peaks while the number of sun spots – or flares – hits a maximum level every 11 years.

Dr Fisher, a Nasa scientist for 20 years, said these two events would combine in 2013 to produce huge levels of radiation.

He said large swathes of the world could face being without power for several months, although he admitted that was unlikely.

A more likely scenario was that large areas, including northern Europe and Britain which have “fragile” power grids, would be without power and access to electronic devices for hours, possibly even days.

He said preparations were similar to those in a hurricane season, where authorities knew a problem was imminent but did not know how serious it would be.

“I think the issue is now that modern society is so dependant on electronics, mobile phones and satellites, much more so than the last time this occurred,” he said.

“There is a severe economic impact from this. We take it very seriously. The economic impact could be like a large, major hurricane or storm.”

The National Academy of Sciences warned two years ago that power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications could “all be knocked out by intense solar activity”.

It warned a powerful solar storm could cause “twenty times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina”. That storm devastated New Orleans in 2005 and left an estimated damage bill of more than $125bn (£85bn).

Dr Fisher said precautions could be taken including creating back up systems for hospitals and power grids and allow development on satellite “safe modes”.

“If you know that a hazard is coming … and you have time enough to prepare and take precautions, then you can avoid trouble,” he added.

His division, a department of the Science Mission Directorate at Nasa headquarters in Washington DC, which investigates the Sun’s influence on the earth, uses dozens of satellites to study the threat.

The government has said it was aware of the threat and “contingency plans were in place” to cope with the fall out from such a storm.

These included allowing for certain transformers at the edge of the National Grid to be temporarily switched off and to improve voltage levels throughout the network.

The National Risk Register, established in 2008 to identify different dangers to Britain, also has “comprehensive” plans on how to handle a complete outage of electricity supplies.


Edited by Cat, 18 February 2012 - 11:31 PM.
edited to add text


#2 WormGuy

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 02:17 PM

"The government has said it was aware of the threat and “contingency plans were in place” to cope with the fall out from such a storm."

Uh huh, sure they do. I wonder if they will let the rest of us in on it.



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#3 savagerabbit

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 02:38 PM

I wasn't able to find the fox news story that I read the other day but I was pretty sure it said that was nothing the gub-ment could do to prepare for something like this. Call me nuts... call me conspiratorial but wouldn't it be really easy to set off an EMP and call it a solar flare? What keeps playing in my head over and over is "anarchy creates a vacuum to which anything will rush in to fill the void" Essentially what I'm saying is they NEED something like this in order to gain complete control. Meanwhile.... I just keep prepping.

#4 CrabGrassAcres

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 05:16 PM

An EMP would be regional in scope. A flare will hit the entire globe. Google for Carrington flare for more info.

Things like this are survivable. You might want to put a large lightening arrestor on your incoming wires to keep the house from catching fire. This in addition to ground wires. Be prepared for a multiple year, grid down scenario. It is possible that grid power will be restored in small areas around power plants but that areas that require long transmission lines will not be serviced for many years, maybe not in your lifetime.

I expect that a lot of manufacturing would have to start over from scratch, just to build the infrastructure back up. In the meantime, the entitlement crowd may pose a huge threat to recovery.
"Have mercy on me, my God, have mercy on me, for in you I take refuge. I will take refuge in the shadow of your wings until the disaster has passed." Ps 57:1


"Look carefully then how you walk, not as unwise but as wise,making the best use of the time, because the days are evil. " Eph 5:15,16


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#5 Cat

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 06:00 PM

Does anybody know... EMP or solar flare... Does it only destroy active electronics equipment?

I'm not talking about turned on or not, that wouldn't matter. By "active" I mean devices.

Would DVDs and CDs be protected and safe? All those family pictures on my backup CDs, home videotapes, music CDs and other stuff... would they get wiped out like cassette tapes do if you put them by a strong magnet?

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#6 savagerabbit

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 06:16 PM

ahh... I see. I'm going on very limited fictional information about EMPs. wink.gif But I agree with you about the sheeple.

#7 CrabGrassAcres

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 07:42 PM

Cat, while nobody has seen a Carrington Flare since we've had all those goodies, there is a good chance only stuff connected to the grid will be hit.

However, how are you going to get the photos and stuff off if you have no power?
"Have mercy on me, my God, have mercy on me, for in you I take refuge. I will take refuge in the shadow of your wings until the disaster has passed." Ps 57:1


"Look carefully then how you walk, not as unwise but as wise,making the best use of the time, because the days are evil. " Eph 5:15,16


"Do not be afraid because of the words that you have heard" 2 Kings 19:6
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#8 Cat

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 08:06 PM

Eventually the power would come back. Might take years, but it would.

I just don't want the pictures not already printed out, the old videotapes of my kids as cute babies, etc., to be destroyed forever.

We have a grandbaby coming. I'll be lucky if the pictures his folks take ever get off of a computer. shrug.gif




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#9 CrabGrassAcres

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 08:52 PM

You can store them inside a metal container to be on the safe side, but they would probably be ok anyhow.
"Have mercy on me, my God, have mercy on me, for in you I take refuge. I will take refuge in the shadow of your wings until the disaster has passed." Ps 57:1


"Look carefully then how you walk, not as unwise but as wise,making the best use of the time, because the days are evil. " Eph 5:15,16


"Do not be afraid because of the words that you have heard" 2 Kings 19:6
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#10 Mt_Rider

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Posted 29 June 2010 - 12:25 AM

Better store a playing device while you're at it. tongue.gif Good question, Cat. Never thot of that. I have a selection of [printed] photos in the BOB's. For ID (in case you try to find each other) and for memories.


Does a metal locker sitting on basement cement [with electronic items inside and insulated from touching the metal] protect anything....or am I missing a ground wire???


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#11 CrabGrassAcres

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Posted 29 June 2010 - 05:58 AM

Mt Rider, that would likely be sufficient.
"Have mercy on me, my God, have mercy on me, for in you I take refuge. I will take refuge in the shadow of your wings until the disaster has passed." Ps 57:1


"Look carefully then how you walk, not as unwise but as wise,making the best use of the time, because the days are evil. " Eph 5:15,16


"Do not be afraid because of the words that you have heard" 2 Kings 19:6
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#12 mommato3boys

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Posted 29 June 2010 - 09:46 AM

Good thing the world is supposed to end in 2012 then huh

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And here I was worried about our country holding it together until the 2012 election
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#13 cootie

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Posted 29 June 2010 - 11:07 PM

QUOTE (mommato3boys @ Jun 29 2010, 02:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Good thing the world is supposed to end in 2012 then huh

cheeky-smiley-067.gif


And here I was worried about our country holding it together until the 2012 election



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#14 CrabGrassAcres

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 01:34 PM

Researcher points to Sun as likely source of eighth-century 'Charlemagne event' November 30, 2012 (Phys.org)—Until recently, the years 774 and 775 were best known for Charlemagne's victory over the Lombards. But earlier this year, a team of scientists in Japan discovered a baffling spike in carbon-14 deposits within the rings of cedar trees that matched those same years. Because cosmic rays are tied to carbon-14 concentrations, scientists around the world have wondered about the cause: a nearby supernova, a gamma ray burst in the Milky Way or an intense superflare emanating from the Sun? Now, Adrian Melott, professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Kansas and Brian Thomas, KU alumnus and professor of physics and astronomy at Washburn University, have examined the evidence and zeroed in on the likely source of the medieval cosmic ray bombardment—a coronal mass ejection from the Sun. Melott said the scientists, who originally discovered the carbon-14 spike and published their findings in the journal Nature, miscalculated the implied intensity of such an event, and they mistakenly ruled out the Sun as the cause of the radiation detected for the years 774-775. "What they concluded was that the energy emitted by the Sun would have had to have been, say, 1,000 times larger than the Carrington event—the greatest solar flare ever known," Melott said. "We just observed this simple mistake and corrected it, and the answer came out that it would be 10 or 20 times greater than the Carrington event in 1859. That means that this may be a more reasonable explanation. The Carrington event is the greatest in the last 200 years, and this would be the greatest thing in the last 1,300 years or so, so it becomes more reasonable." In addition, Melott noted that recent observations of stars similar to the Sun made by the Kepler satellite suggest that they are flaring at levels similar to that which they suggest—and higher—at average intervals of a few hundred to thousand years. Other explanations for the medieval radiation burst are highly improbable, according to the KU researcher. For instance, the scientists who discovered the carbon-14 spike ruled out the possibility of a nearby galactic supernova as a source, and Melott agrees with their conclusion. "A supernova is basically a star that comes to the end of its life and produces a spectacular explosion," said Melott. "But in order to produce effects like the ones seen in the tree rings, such a supernova would have had to have been within 100 light years or so. Such an event would have been blindingly bright in the sky, much brighter than a full moon. It would have been bright like that for months and could not have failed to be noted by every civilization on Earth. Being so close, there would be remnants of the explosion visible today, still expanding. Something so close could not have been missed." Melott believes a third possibility for the 774-775 burst of cosmic energy—a gamma ray burst—should have been considered by the original authors, even though he deemed it unlikely. "A gamma ray burst comes from a small fraction of supernovae," he said. "They result in a beaming of the radiation into two narrow searchlight beams going out in opposite directions from the event. Now, because the radiation is so columnated, they can nail you from quite far away. They could be hundreds or even thousands of light years away and still nail us with enough radiation to produce the carbon-14 spike. It's a possibility, but not a likely possibility, because these things happen with intervals of 10-15 million years on average. Is it likely that such a burst would have happened 1,200 years ago? Rare events do happen, but it would be very surprising. I don't think it's a likely explanation." Returning to the more-likely solar event, Melott said that something similar to the Charlemagne event would have disastrous consequences for today's technology-dependent world. He said such an event could occur every one or two thousand years, but unpredictably and with only a few hours' warning. "You'd get a slight increase in skin cancer rates because of effects on the ozone layer," said Melott. "You'd get a little bit of damage to food crops, but that's not too serious—and it wasn't for the Holy Roman Empire either. But we have a problem they didn't, which is our technological level. When these things hit, the Earth's magnetic field undergoes an interaction, and the magnetic field lines move, and that produces a current in wires. If you have a long power line, you can get a huge current. Transformers get overloaded, and they burn out. And you can lose a lot of transformers. Imagine the lights going off all over the developed world—not to come on for who knows how long—because you have to build more transformers. And how to you do that without electricity? It's a real problem to prepare for it." Work by Melott and Thomas will appear online via Nature magazine.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news...-event.html#jCp
Researcher points to Sun as likely source of eighth-century 'Charlemagne event'

Edited by CrabGrassAcres, 12 December 2012 - 01:36 PM.

"Have mercy on me, my God, have mercy on me, for in you I take refuge. I will take refuge in the shadow of your wings until the disaster has passed." Ps 57:1


"Look carefully then how you walk, not as unwise but as wise,making the best use of the time, because the days are evil. " Eph 5:15,16


"Do not be afraid because of the words that you have heard" 2 Kings 19:6
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#15 Mt_Rider

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 10:12 PM

I've been watching video productions that are saying that Faraday boxes must have a ground wire...the charge has to go somewhere. One option is the water intake pipe which runs underground from your house. It can act as a ground.

Can't say I've got enough science to sort thru the opinions of the various scientists...if they don't even agree. :yar:

MtRider ---- EMP is a very deadly event, if by enemy or by our own sun. [I mean 'deadly' by it's ramifications; not directly ]

Edited by Mt_Rider, 12 December 2012 - 10:12 PM.
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#16 Darlene

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 10:55 PM

Well, it appears I have messed up again. Being humbled isn't a bad thing I guess lol.

When I originally wrote this post, I didn't realize that this thread had been started in 2010. That's what I get for reading the site late at night after long, stressful days. lol

I'll leave what I wrote just as a reminder because I doubt I'm the only one stressed to the max these days and it isn't always easy to bite my tongue....lol....

I'm only 2 years late with my response. It could be worse yanno! lol


To some of our newest friends I'd like to make a polite reminder that we'd really prefer to refrain from any 'smack' talking. It doesn't add anything to communication outside of sarcasm and I find it draining.

Unless each of us, from the moment we were born, were 100% preppers through our terrible 2's, rebellious teens, naive 20's and so on, each one of us could have been referred to as a 'sheeple' at one point in time. Perhaps some of us were more conservative but I'd be willing to bet that at some point in life each of us threw caution to the wind, felt that the whole world was before us and waiting and/or didn't think about tomorrow. In fact, as I think about it, that word really bothers me. I don't find it funny that so many will be caught unawares and will devestating hurt because of it. I don't feel holier than thou because I don't consider myself in that category and bottom line, none of us is any better than them.

I will tell you one thing though and this one you can take to the bank...

There will be many that are highly prepared that will not make it...their preps won't save them. And there will be some that are poorly prepped that will thrive in the days ahead. Be careful of putting your hopes and trust in your preps. There is One Who is the only hope any of us have for the future.

Finally, whether we like our current government administration or not really doesn't matter. It is what it is and we need to prepare regardless.


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#17 sassenach

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 11:43 PM

9 days and I guess we figure out real quick if 12-21-12 is going to rock this world, I can tell you we are having almost constant bitty wobbles going on where I am. Another epicenter south of me has become active, but the ones under 1 don't usually get registered but they do this. Its weird and I know Im not ill or overtired. When a better one goes on that distributes its influence in my region, the NE, they can go on for several minutes too often accompanied by the bang of the first wave of the quake. This is just a microcosm as there are many quakes in many areas of the world, many so much larger on a daily to weekly basis. Magnificent ones, well....... sure, We are due somewhere, sometime. A precise date or just some sudden turn around of all the hate in the world and suddenly everyone is mature and kindly ...... wouldn't that be nice. I dunno. Don't see THAT happening either. But my little crystal pendulum keeps doing its thing. alot the past several days. Its like the earth is more fluid or something. If it really goes teeter totter on the 21st then I will try to preserve my life and my cats and honestly Im not sure where would be safe around me exactly but if the building is tossing about , a walk up to the school field is an idea to sit it out. I needed to sort through things and do winter prep on BOBS and such too so I am doing that this week too and shopping tomorrow. Pup tent etc will be lined up to grab, if I can get to it. Just in case. If its a simple regular day and no catastrophes, I'm good and will continue as per usual for me. I am reading the Marine Winter Survival Guide too, read much of it yesterday as a review and it gave me good ideas.
It is expected to really start snowing the week of the 21st here, although we get bitty snow and rain still. I know its snowed hard in some areas around the US and Canada too , already....... and others have other weather. Be flexible in rearranging your bobs right now.

As for solar activity, seems like its toned down some lately in the past few months. Thats just fine with me! Prefer grid going down in the summer time around here, lol.
I do think our political situation and fiscal cliff situation are more of a worry now. Nuff said, its just a simple fact anymore. I shake my head alot more now. Eventually something will give whether its serious disaster, calamity or economics , inflation, which is already very hurtful. Right now I am grateful for the simple things very simple things and that I have a roof and lights on and its warm inside.
I was able to talk to someone I wish I could visit with more but we are too spread out and she was missing it too. Really nice to talk face to face. Im glad we could do that. It is something simple , I know, but I am grateful. Come what may I know she's doing the best she can and I am too. It was really nice. I have more serious things on my mind but its little stuff liket that shores me up sometimes and today was one of those moments. It helps my fortitude level and maybe if a quake hit or the lights go out for a long time, I can just go into the mode I did when there was trouble and I was working to help things be done properly way back then. I handled it, then. No matter what happens, when it does, I hope I can get the right mental mode going and just deal with it. It's more than half the battle I think. Darn wobbles, lol. :Blushing:

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#18 Midnightmom

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:34 AM

From what I understand, the government is fully aware of how vulnerable our grid is, and they know how much it will take to guard it by installing faraday boxes, but they won't do it......because of the "expense" with little regard to what the cost will be to fix it once it is 'broken.' I think I heard that on a Glen Beck broadcast.

I was watching NGeo Doomsday Preppers the other night (on the comp, so not the latest show) and one of the preppers used a metal garbage can as his faraday box! He tested it by putting some electronic devices in it, then zapped it with a car battery. Everything inside survived.

The can was lined with cardboard for insulation, and I'm guessing that having it outside in the yard, the ground acted as the 'ground.' Not sure what would happen if the garbage can was inside the garage or a shed.

The problem with this whole scenario as far as I am concerned, is that you would have to have two of everything. And that is expensive! I mean, there is NO WARNING for an EMP, so whatever you want to protect has to reside in the "box" 24/7 in order to be protected!!! I don't have that kind of money, so I might just as well not lose any sleep over it. But, putting your CD's etc inside might not be a bad idea.........

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#19 CrabGrassAcres

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 08:44 AM

We MUST be aware that we are talking about two DISTINCT events here. This thread discusses SOLAR FLARES, not EMPs.

For EMPs you get no warning, it affects everything electronic whether or not connected to the grid. Faraday boxes can be used to protect electronics. Vehicles may or may not be affected and it seems if they do not actually have the engine on at that moment, they will be ok.

For Solar Flares, you will get some warning. Could be hours, it depends on how fast it is moving. It affects anything connected to a long antenna, such as anything connected to the power grid. If your items are not plugged in, they will not be affected. The main danger is FIRE. I don't think throwing the breaker off will be enough to protect homes from fire danger but that would be the first step. My meter is on a pole about 15 ft from the house so hopefully any arcing would occur there if the breaker is thrown or pulled.

In either scenario, the grid WILL go down. EMP will probably not damage it as badly as a Solar Flare of the Carrington or greater class and EMP is likely to be more localized so there is a better chance that we could have a restored grid at some point. A solar flare would be world wide. Every nation would be affected. This would possibly slow down our recovery, but OTOH, it might prevent some of our enemies taking advantage of our disaster. Also, EMP is likely to be a prelude to full scale nuclear or other attack.
"Have mercy on me, my God, have mercy on me, for in you I take refuge. I will take refuge in the shadow of your wings until the disaster has passed." Ps 57:1


"Look carefully then how you walk, not as unwise but as wise,making the best use of the time, because the days are evil. " Eph 5:15,16


"Do not be afraid because of the words that you have heard" 2 Kings 19:6
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#20 Twilight

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 01:10 PM

Darlene.
you are so right ! Seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness. He alone can protect us from any and all dangers.

With todays electronics I am not sure they would be safe. The motor does not have to be on or off for the electronics to be fried ( I have proof of that!!) Now these modern appliances with all their fancy electronics, I do not think they will stand a chance. Computers for instance can be ruined from surges, ground charges and who know what all else. Connected to one of those expensive grounding boxes, a box will handle one charge only. but I was told that a direct lightening strike nothing can difuse. I believe that. I suppose it is not known what power a flare or a EMP will be as they have never been measured?
Remember your washer, dryer and anything else that has a computer in it , probably the newer ranges, furnaces, heaters, A/C etc



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