So what do you think?

[Cat]

Do you think Bird Flu/Avian Flu is still a big danger looming on our horizon?

 

Our state has been running late-night PSAs (public service announcements) kind of downplaying it, and putting more in context of being prepared and/or informed for a bunch of things. And THAT was mild.

[Lois]

Our county through the county nursing service issued a phamphlet that came with our local free newspaper that is advocating a min of 2 weeks suppy of food and other necessities with the warning attached that the county cannot possibly provide everything to everyone in an emergency or in the event of a pandemic.

Not everyone is down playing this situation.

I was pleased that they said a minimum of 2 weeks

[Skagitgal]

Amen Cat !!. Our counties up N. of Seattle are following Seattle's lead. There have been workshops, & other info. As to the exact time they are proposing a person prep for.....I do not know....somewhere around 3 weeks. Any preps are better than none; which is what a lot of people have.

[westbrook]

we are now getting into flu season... so get your OTC meds!!!! quick before I buy them all up!

 

I have noticed that WM is stocking less selection on the shelves so I have been going to the pharmacies and buying there.

 

I have also been buying liquid motrin because it gets into the system faster then a pill.

[Mare]

I think it's going to happen eventually...it's almost inevitable. However, I think there are more immediate concerns. I just try to be as prepped as I can for any scenario that allows me to shelter in place. Leaving just is not an option for us.

[theyd]

i think we need to be prepared.

[Vic303]

I think a pandemic is inevitable in MY remaining lifetime. Whether or not it is an H5N1 strain remains to be seen.

 

BTW here is an interesting story from Reuters on the 1918 Pandemic.

 

Scientists uncover why Spanish Flu was so deadly

 

By Patricia Reaney 35 minutes ago

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The 1918 Spanish Flu that killed up to 50 million people worldwide caused a severe immune response which may help to explain why it was so deadly, American scientists said on Wednesday.

 

The pandemic was one of the worst in recorded history and killed more people than World War I. But researchers did not understand what made it so lethal.

 

By infecting mice with a reconstructed version of the 1918 virus and monitoring their response, a team of scientists believe they have found some clues to solve the puzzle as well as a possible new way to fight pandemic flu.

 

"What we think is happening is that the host's inflammatory response is being highly activated by the virus, and that response is making the virus much more damaging to the host," said Dr John Kash, of the University of Washington in Seattle, who headed the research team.

 

"It is an overblown inflammatory response," he added in an interview, adding that it could have caused a similar immune response in humans.

 

Kash and his team, whose research is reported online in the journal Nature, believe targeting the patient's immune system response against the infection, as well as the virus itself, could provide a two-pronged attack against pandemic flu.

 

Scientists fear the next pandemic could occur if the H5N1 bird flu virus that has killed more than 145 people since late 2003 mutates into a strain that becomes highly infectious in humans.

 

The Spanish Flu pandemic was caused by the H1N1 influenza strain. Unlike other flu viruses that afflict mainly the elderly and children, the 1918 pandemic struck young adults in their prime and people without immune system problems.

 

One theory to explain its deadly impact was that a secondary infection may have attacked Spanish Flu sufferers whose immune systems were already weakened.

 

But Kash and his colleagues discovered that the reconstructed virus activated immune system genes in the rodents and caused serious lung damage and death.

 

When they looked more closely at the animals' response, they found several genes had been activated including those that are linked to cell death. A second group of mice infected with a benign flu virus had a less serious immune response and none died.

 

"When the body responds to infection, there are components of the immune system that can be beneficial and those that can be harmful," said Dr Christopher Basler, of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, who is a co-author of the study.

 

The scientists are planning further studies to try to understand why the immune system reacts so strongly to the virus.

[jeanettecentaur]

I'm poking my head in to this discussion because, like many of you, I have a slight paranoia about bird flu issues. I'm taking microbiology in school right now, and have been questioning my professor alot about this issue. So here's what I've been able to deduce: When people talk about "overblown immune response" to the 1918 Bird Flu strain they are basically saying that as a body tried to fight this microbe it ended up hurting itself in ways such as drowning in our own mucus, ect. Well, it's been stated over and over that people died from these types of issues and secondary infections from the flu. The thing is, we didn't even have antibiotics until 1928 (Flemming discovered penicillin), so unless they had good knowledge of natural herbal remedies, then they were probably were not going to make it through the other infections that such a nasty flu virus can bring about. A healthy immune system doesn't seem to help because it's the overactive immune system that's making the illness worse.

 

I'm sure many of you already get this stuff, but I'm still trying to make it clear in my own head!

[westbrook]

Here is the bottom line with this flu pandemic...

 

If you get it and I get it and 10 millon others get it... will there be enough medicine or hospital beds to accomodate all of us? what if 20 million get it? the world gets it?

 

while we have anti-biotics to deal with the secondary infections.... when the pharmaceutical companies run out because their employees have come down with it.. then what?

 

will the farmers come to town to sell their food and risk getting the flu?

 

If this becomes a pandemic and say 1/4 of the population comes down with it, will that be enough to collaspe the economy? will my debit card still work? will it take a wheel barrow load of money to buy a loaf of bread?

 

If we have millions of people that have come down with the flu how many fire fighters and police officers will be left? will they come to work? would you?

 

Will terror cells activate?

 

california in all their infinate wisdom just made it illegal to purchase anything with sudephridine without a drivers license! yep.. ya gotta show them ID, and you can only purchase 3 a month! Everything was pulled off the shelves and behind the pharmacy counter just this weekend. Gotta get logged into a computer...more then 3 purchases is no longer possible! no more stocking up OTC meds.. after all you might use it to make meth with!

 

There is much to worry about if this becomes a pandemic, even if we all survive it, will there be enough people out of work with the flu to 'stop the motor of the world'? (Atlas Shrugged)

 

P.I.E. = Preparedness Is Empowerment

[DoubleD]

I have been seriously tracking pandemic flu developments (predominantly H5N1 - but there are other candidates as well) for almost two years now. In my humble opinion, we are much closer to a pandemic than we have been in that 2 year period of monitoring. The increasing number of clusters reported in indonesia over the last 10 days, the massive pig die offs in China (unexplained death of over a million pigs with symptoms very "flu like"), and the "tinkering" with vaccines by China all point to a hot bed for mutations to occur for efficient Human to Human transmission. I hope it fizzles out - but the indicators do not support that conclusion.

[MommyofSeven]

Quote:

california in all their infinate wisdom just made it illegal to purchase anything with sudephridine without a drivers license! yep.. ya gotta show them ID, and you can only purchase 3 a month! Everything was pulled off the shelves and behind the pharmacy counter just this weekend. Gotta get logged into a computer...more then 3 purchases is no longer possible! no more stocking up OTC meds.. after all you might use it to make meth with!

t

I believe this is a federal law, as it's in effect here as well. Most companies have changed their formulations so they can remain in the aisles, meaning they don't work as well or the same, opening us up to not being able to clear the symptoms, and possibly developing allergies to the new ingredients. I have LIVED on Tylenol Allergy Sinus for years, but haven't been able to use it now because it's different. Doesn't work. So I walk around in pain from my sinuses daily in the fall and spring.

For at least two years or so I have only been able to buy three products with sudephidrine at a time.

Instead of policing the meth makers they are punishing the law abiding.

Not meaning to thread jack. I will do everything I can to protect my family in the event of a pandemic, but I surely do worry about collapse of the global economy.

On a side note, I read that India's water table is lowering, so they won't be able to feed their population within just a few years. Having a starving populace is a perfect breeding ground for any type of pandemic.

If it's not H5N1, it will be something else, originating in that area, I believe.

Mo7

[txcowgirl]

I think you are right on, Mo7. A dense population with poor hygiene would be an ideal breeding ground for a pandemic. We may miss the bird flu this year, but sooner or later, something will come.

 

And, yes, westie, I think if it is very widespread we will go back to 1880's type living, limited travel from rural communities. SHTF for sure, TEOTWAWKI maybe.

[Vic303]

If you want pseudofed, do what I did. I asked my regular doctor for a 90 day prescription supply of the pseudofed/guaifensen mix in 12hr form. It's a real lifesaver in the winter months when my bronchitis acts up.

[anyala]

I too have been dealing with the frustration of not having many choices in the meds aisle at the store. I purchased some "robitussin" that says it clears cold symptoms for both children and adults. We have always stuck with the psudophedrine, and I am now trying to find an adequate replacement. Has anyone tried the robitussin products? Do they work well? I won't play into the gov. game of being punished for the drug pushers illegal acts. I am not going to be put into a database and monitored every time someone in my family gets sick. It's ridiculous. I would greatly appreaciate any advice on products that work well for kids and adults that I can buy over the counter, hassle-free.

 

Thanks!

Anyala

[brightblessings5]

Quote:

I would greatly appreaciate any advice on products that work well for kids and adults that I can buy over the counter, hassle-free.

I really like Coldcalm or Hylands Cold with Zinc. Both are homeopathic meds that you can pick up almost anywhere now. HTH

[MommyofSeven]

I have used the robitussin products before and they do just fine, but for my family, the guaifenesin (sp?) products give us very weird, active dreams that don't lead to good sleep. They work on the symptoms but more rest is needed the next day.

 

the new forumulation of tylenol sinus relieves symptoms just fine as well, but it makes me very drowsy. Kind of hard to do when you're chasing a toddler, so most of the time I go around in pain instead. Vics on the chest helps somewhat, but I can't use that when I'm nusring (I'm not now, but will be when spring allergies roll around).

 

I've found a combination of spruce, pine, cedarwood and eucalyptus essential oils to be very effective in combating both sinus symptoms and chest congestion, you can combine a few drops each with about 2 tbsp of olive oil and rub on the chest (no children under 1 year old) or drop it in as you're taking a shower, or put on a tissue and sniff. The wood oils need to be pretty fresh, though, although my euc oil has stayed good for a long time.

 

Building the immunity helps as well. Oregano essential oil will help combat many cold problems, although it's nasty as all get out. I put it in chicken soup. Lends it an unique flavor, but it gets it into the body. sniffing it works well, too. Supposed to work well for sinus symptoms, completely alleviating them, but you have to do a fairly long term therapeutic regimin of it, and I haven't been not preg or nursing long enough to try it since I found out about it.

 

I should add that all EO's should be used with extreme caution by pregnant women, and never on children under 1 year old, and never, ever used undiluted.

 

To get the sinuses flowing, I simmer onions and garlic. Soon everyone is going around blowing noses. Messy, but effective. Then to dry them up, the EO's mentioned above. I'm a firm believer that the sooner you get the gunk out, the sooner you'll get better, so for colds and such, I try not to stop the flow, unless it's inhibiting sleep or for whatever reason they absolutely cannot miss school. I've been told countless times by the kids' teachers that they really appreciate that I keep my kids home. So many of the parents at our school see school as a babysitter, some out of laziness, but some out of necessity, that they get way too many sick kids.

 

Oh, sliced onions for chest congestion...slice an onion, layer over an old tshirt, then put a heating pad on top of that. Will release lots of gunk. Very effective. Drink lots of water while doing this treatment to help.

 

Also read the posts in the herb forum and the flu clinic. Lois has a WEALTH of information about herbal and other natural treatments. I'm adding to my project list to go in there and copy and print all of her posts. One of the biggest regrets I had when we moved servers and lost so much was that I hadn't done it sooner.

 

Mo7

[Readymom]

Hi! I'm new to this forum, and just tooling around trying to get used to this great site! I have been following Avian/Pandemic flu for nearly a year and to answer your question .... YES .... a pandemic flu is on the horizon. I am actually a part a committee in our county that will be adressing to all households how to prepare for a possible pandemic ie: food,water,alternate light,heat & water sources. The threat is definatly there, with the avian flu in birds spreading to well over 50 countries worldwide and human deaths from this flu in about 70% of those who are unfortunate enough to acquire the flu through contact with ill birds. The Avian flu in humans is NOT easily transmitted from one human to another human, yet. But don't be fooled by that because the virus is changing and traveling to humans in other countries .... currently Egypt is experiencing some casualties. You would be wise to look up what your local government has on their websites as far as information and suggestions go and if you can't find information there, look at www.pandemicflu.gov, www.cidrap.umn.edu, www.who.int, www.planforpandemic.com or www.fluwikie2.com for even more information. Hope this helps! -k

ps-- if you want to see a pretty good slide show with some info, go here: http://www.birdflupreparation.com/preptips.html

[Cat]

[UKGuy]

Hi Readymom, welcome to the forum.

 

Countrys all over the world are clamouring to stock up on Tamiflu and paying a kings ransom for it, even though the latest mutations are resistant to it. Perhaps a case of officials being seen to be doing something?

 

I get my information from www.newsnow.co.uk

choose birdflu from hot topics - this is worldwide

and

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/

The Editors of Effect Measure are senior public health scientists and practitioners.

 

The Bank of England, Englands Treasury and the FSA are currently running a month long birdflu scenareo/drill to discover the effect it will have on our currency.

 

ANYONE STILL THINK IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN?

[Readymom]

Thank you for the welcome! I'm home canning to help stock my pantry in preparation for a Pandemic situation and that's how I found this site. If there is anything, in particular that you lost for this thread, and you think I may be able to help you restore some of that information, please let me know. This is still a current concern and continues to move forward and still needs to be watched and prepared for in each household. This is a fabulous site to learn about this threat and have so, so many other resources for preparation and 'survival', as well! This site is nicely done! -k

[TheCG]

What will happen in the US if a pandemic hits? Will they shut down places where people congregate (I work in a call center and am not really allowed to miss any more work for a while, so am hoping they'd shut them all down so I can hole up in my apartment)?

 

I know I need to get more water and more OTC medication. Does anyone know if the dollar store ibuprofen and such is as effective as the regular drug store stuff?

[MommyofSeven]

CG,

 

I think your problem is one a LOT of people will have..."If I don't go to work I will lose my job, and if I go to work I could get sick." It's unfortunate it will come to that for some people.

 

I have found that SOME things in generics are just as effective. Ibuprofen, cough suppressant, etc seem to work well, some sinus meds do not. You kind of have to experiment.

 

Mo7

[Vic303]

My DH, in the event of a pandemic, will likely be declared 'essential personnel' and HAVE to go to work. So, planning on that event, we have stocked his office with tyvek coveralls, latex gloves, goggles, and n95 masks and a lot of hand sanitizer.

[Honeybee]

Link here

 

Quote:

Bird flu mutates to remain a serious pandemic risk Tue Oct 31, 12:13 AM ET

 

Experts have renewed their warnings of a bird flu pandemic after a new resistant strain of the H5N1 virus deadly to humans and poultry was found to have spread throughout the region.

 

Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States believe the new virus -- dubbed the "Fujian-like" strain -- may have mutated in response to vaccination programmes designed to halt the disease in farm flocks.

 

"The development of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses in poultry in Eurasia, accompanied with the increase in human infections in 2006, suggests the virus has not been effectively contained and that the pandemic threat persists," said a report in the American academic publication "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences".

 

"Studies suggest that H5N1 seroconversion (development of antibodies in blood serum as a result of infection or immunization) in market poultry is low and that vaccination may have facilitated the selection of the Fujian-like sublineage," it added.

 

The report -- co-written by Hong Kong University's microbiology supremo Yi Guan, who has led worldwide study into the disease -- said the strain had emerged in 2005, and had already spread throughout mainland China, as well as to Hong Kong, Thailand, Laos and Malaysia.

 

The Fujian-like strain was now the primary variant of the fast-changing virus throughout Asia, and was quickly replacing strains that had emerged in Hong Kong and Vietnam, it said.

 

"Analyses revealed the emergence and predominance of a previously uncharacterized H5N1 virus sublineage (Fujian-like) in poultry since late 2005," it said.

 

"The predominance of this virus over a large geographical region within a short period directly challenges current disease control measures," the report added.

 

The H5N1 strain of bird flu was first reported to have evolved into a form lethal to humans in Hong Kong in 1997, when six people died of the then mysterious disease.

 

A renewed outbreak in 2003 among poultry flocks in Asia triggered a wave of infections that has left more than 150 people dead throughout the world.

 

The World Health Organisation has expressed fears a bird flu pandemic was almost certain in the near future, and in a worst case scenario could kill millions worldwide.

 

Quote:

The World Health Organisation has expressed fears a bird flu pandemic was almost certain in the near future, and in a worst case scenario could kill millions worldwide.

 

Pay attention here. "Almost certain in the near future". They have gone from saying a pandemic could be possible to saying it is "almost certain".

 

They are still working on downplaying the importance of this - probably to prevent panic:

 

LA Times

 

Quote:

Bird flu strain found in China dominates

The Fujian-like variety has spread in Asia but it has not become any easier to pass among humans, researchers say.

By Karen Kaplan

Times Staff Writer

 

October 31, 2006

 

A strain of H5N1 avian influenza identified last year has become dominant in southern China and is the source of a new wave of bird flu in Southeast Asia, scientists reported today.

 

The so-called Fujian-like strain has infected poultry in Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand, and sickened people in China and Thailand.

 

Although five people in China have been infected by the strain, the virus does not appear to have improved its ability to spread among humans, according to the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

 

"There's no evidence in this paper of additional human-to-human transmission, which is the real bottom line we're all worried about," said Robert Webster, a virologist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis and co-author of the study. "But so long as the virus is out there in these numbers, it's going to be a continuing pandemic threat."

 

The researchers also said the vaccine administered to birds in China was ineffective against the strain and may have facilitated its proliferation among the country's 15 billon chickens, geese and ducks by eliminating weaker flu strains.

 

"With China immunizing all of these birds, they're basically driving the evolution" of H5N1, said Henry Niman, president of a virus and vaccine research company in Pittsburgh called Recombinomics Inc. who was not involved with the study.

 

The report, based on China's ongoing flu surveillance program, found that H5N1 became more prevalent from July 2005 to June 2006 compared with the previous 12 months. The researchers tested 53,220 birds in live poultry markets and found that 2.4% of them tested positive for any strain of H5N1, up from 0.9% a year earlier.

 

They found that ducks and geese were the most common carriers, and they were susceptible to bird flu year-round. Chickens tend to succumb only in the winter, but the researchers discovered cases in 11 out of the 12 months of their study, up from four out of 12 months the previous year. Overall, the peak flu season of October to March has been extended until June, the researchers found.

 

"There seems to be a lot more of the virus around in 2006 than in 2005," said Richard Webby, an influenza researcher at St. Jude Research Hospital who was not connected with the study.

 

The Fujian-like strain, named after the coastal Chinese province where it was first identified, has steadily risen in prevalence over the last year, accounting for 103 of the 108 samples tested from April to June, according to the report.

 

The emergence of a dominant strain has some advantages.

 

"In the short term it's easier to control a single dominant lineage than a number of smaller ones," Webby said.

 

But a dominant strain is also more likely to spread widely. That has happened twice since H5N1 was first identified in China in 1996.

 

The first wave of outbreaks were limited to Asia, but the second wave traveled from western China's Qinghai Lake in 2005 to Europe and Africa — and continues to spread.

 

Now, said lead author Dr. Yi Guan, a Hong Kong University professor, "we believe it is likely a third wave has already started."

 

The quick rise of the Fujian-like strain should prompt China to rethink its vaccination program, several experts said. Official policy dictates that all Chinese poultry be vaccinated.

 

Some countries have balked at vaccinations out of fear that it would suppress the virus in birds but not really eliminate it.

 

A mandatory vaccine program in Vietnam has effectively stopped H5N1 transmission in that country, but those results were not repeated in China.

 

"We don't know if the vaccine was wrong or if some birds were missed," Webster said. "That's the $60-million question."

 

Vaccinating poultry against H5N1 amounts to "a huge natural experiment," said Dr. Scott P. Layne, an epidemiologist at the UCLA School of Public Health. "By vaccinating we're manipulating the virus' evolution. Is that good, neutral or bad for us? Who knows?"

 

Though H5N1 is widespread in birds, none of the strains that have emerged so far are adept at crossing the species boundary to infect humans. Since 2003, 256 people have been infected with H5N1, resulting in 151 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

 

More rare are cases of the virus jumping directly from person to person — a necessary ingredient for a pandemic.

 

But the chances of such a strain emerging increases with each new infection. The worst-case scenario is that a person will be simultaneously infected with bird flu and a human flu, giving the two viruses a chance to reshuffle their genetic elements to create a deadly strain that spreads easily from person to person.

 

Dr. David Nabarro, who coordinates the United Nations' efforts against human and avian influenza, said the new data were a reminder that H5N1 was constantly evolving.

 

"I don't think it's a sign that we're getting any closer to pandemic flu," Nabarro said. "Frankly, I don't know how we're going to know when pandemic flu gets close. We're just going to get hit by it."

[Granny]

Got this email from friend yesterday but haven't had a chance to check WHO site yet. Anybody got updates from there or elsewhere?

 

Quote:

This it the first time I have seen "official" recommendations from the federal gov. to stockpile for 3 months.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=114048

 

Also Virologist Dr. Henry Niman has stated today there have been 3 changes near the receptor binding domain of the virus. This was identified in samples from a goose. The goose was found in Shantou. Guess who Shantou's neighbor is?? That's right! Hong Kong!!

 

Keep in mind some of Dr. Nimans theories are somewhat controversial to other scientist who hold to the notion that viruses evolve through reassortment or point mutation. Dr. Niman believes that flu viruses evolve through recombination which, with the release of the data, certainly looks like he may be correct. He has in the past several years predicted with accuracy some of the changes occurring with H5N1